Oscars 2021: Who will be nominated? Who will win?

The Oscar nominations will be released tomorrow, and there are few categories who I think will be nominated.

Frances McDormand in this year’s Best Picture front-runner, Nomadland

Best Picture

Predicted nominees:

  • The Father
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Mank
  • Minari
  • Nomadland
  • One Night in Miami
  • Promising Young Woman
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7

Possible spoilers:

  • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Soul
  • Sound of Metal

A lot of these nominees are complete locks. Nomadland has been a frontrunner not just to be nominated – but to win – Best Picture since it’s release late last year. Other films, Mank, Minari, One Night in Miami and The Trial of the Chicago 7 have all been locks since their releases, and their popularity has not really waned. Promising Young Woman has been the “Parasite” or “Get Out” of this awards season, slowly gaining a fan following, critical acclaim and awards buzz against all odds. Ending out the nominees will probably be The Father and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, two very solid dramas that have gained pretty steady acclaim and award appreciation since it’s release. If there is a possibility of any of these nominees being snubbed, it will be probably be Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, but I would still count on it being nominated.

Depending on whether or not they go for 8 or 9 nominees (last year, they went for 9, so it could be 8 this year), there are four films that could possibly take that last nomination. Judas and the Black Messiah and Sound of Metal are acclaimed dramas (that will likely gather acting nominations), and depending on how much the Academy like them, could get in the Best Picture field. Other out-there chances are Borat 2 (yes, really) after it’s Golden Globe win and Soul, a very acclaimed animated film. Hey, after 2020, it would be nice to see a brilliant animated movie nominated. Out of these four, I’d say Judas and the Black Messiah is most likely to get in, however, I think they are more likely to stick with 8 nominees.

Best Director

Predicted nominees

  • Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
  • David Fincher – Mank
  • Regina King – One Night in Miami
  • Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

Possible spoilers

  • Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
  • Florian Zeller – The Father

The locks for this category have always been Chloe Zhao (who will probably win), along with David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin (it would be very unlikely if both of them didn’t get in there). Emerald Fennell will also most likely get in there, considering Promising Young Woman’s unorthodox success. That’s right, if these predictions could true, this means that this year’s Oscars will be the first year to have more than one woman in the directing field.

So, really, it’s down to the last nomination. Lee Isaac Chung was nominated at the DGA’s, while Regina King was nominated at Golden Globes, and although, Florian Zeller has not nominated in a big awards ceremony, he could be the surprise choice here. If they want to be make history (by nominated the first black woman for Best Director), they will go for King, however, if they want a bit of a surprise, they will go for Zeller. I’m saying that King just manages to get in there.

Best Actor

Predicted nominees:

  • Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
  • Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Anthony Hopkins – The Father
  • Gary Oldman – Mank
  • Steven Yeun – Minari

Possible spoilers:

  • Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
  • Mads Mikkelson – Another Round

Really, this is a battle between Chadwick Boseman and Anthony Hopkins. Both performances tug at the heartstrings – Hopkins is a former winner (that hasn’t won for over 25 years), who is playing a dementia victim, while Boseman heart-breakingly died last year. I’d say Boseman wins this one. Other than that, Gary Oldman will most likely be nominated, considering Mank’s success (and the fact he’s playing the real-life acclaimed screenwriter, Herman Mankiewicz), along with Riz Ahmed, considering his performance in Sound of Metal has been receiving steady acclaim.

Originally, Steven Yeun was looking like an unfortunate oversight to this race, however, he will probably get in because, well, no-one else seems likely. Surprises could be original front-runner, Delroy Lindo or Mads Mikkelson, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Best Actress

Predicted nominees:

  • Audra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday
  • Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
  • Frances McDormand – Nomadland
  • Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

The Best Actress field is probably the one category that’s pretty much a lock at the moment. Viola Davis, Vanessa Kirby and Frances McDormand have all gone through periods where each of them have been the front-runner for the award, while Carey Mulligan has been the underdog front-runner over the past few months (she might even win). Originally, the fifth nomination seemed a bit uncertain, however, after Audra Day’s surprise win at the Golden Globes, she seems pretty certain aswell.

In terms of who will win, I’d say McDormand might win, but Mulligan could be the surprise winner.

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted nominees:

  • Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods
  • Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami
  • Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

Possible spoilers

  • Alan Kim – Minari
  • Bill Murray – On the Rocks
  • Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7

The battle this year for this category is currently between Daniel Kaluuya and Leslie Odom Jr. – Odom Jr. started off as the front-runner, but Kaluuya has recently took over, and is likely to win. In terms of the other three nominees, I’m sure they’ll be at least one of the cast of Chicago 7 in there, and considering Sacha Baron Cohen’s success in 2020 (with this movie and Borat 2), it will probably be him. Paul Raci has been solid acclaim for his work in Sound of Metal, and he will most likely get in there. In terms of the last nomination, it could Mark Rylance (if the Academy want to nominate a second Trial of the Chicago 7 cast member) or Bill Murray or even Alan Kim (if they go for a child actor), but I think Chadwick Boseman will get his second nomination of the year (both posthumously) for his work in Da 5 Bloods (in the style of Scarlett Johansson last year), even though the movie will most likely be mainly snubbed.

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted nominees:

  • Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy 
  • Olivia Colman – The Father 
  • Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian 
  • Amanda Seyfried – Mank 
  • Yuh-jung Youn – Minari 

Possible spoilers:

  • Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman
  • Helena Zengal – News of the World 

The locks in this category are definitely Olivia Colman and Amanda Seyfried – definitely for a nomination, although to be honest, I have absolutely no idea who will win. Although Yuh-jung Youn has not done that well this awards ceremony, I still think she’s a shoe-in to be nominated, considering Minari’s success.

In terms of the last two nominations, it will really be down to four people – Maria Bakalova has been surprisingly successful this season, however, I think the Academy will baulk at nominating Borat 2 in an acting category; Ellen Burstyn started off as a big front-runner and might get in considering she’s a favourite with the Academy (Requiem for a Dream, The Exorcist, etc.), but her momentum has iced due to Pieces of a Woman’s non-exemplary reception; Glenn Close might get in because the Academy will feel sorry for her as they didn’t give her the Oscar 2 years ago, but Hillbilly Elegy has received rather negative reviews; finally, Jodie Foster’s film, The Mauritanian has not being getting great reviews or really a lot of awards success, but she did just surprisingly win the Golden Globe Award. I’d say that Close and Foster will join Youn, Colman and Seyfried.

In terms of who will win, I don’t know – at the moment, I’d say Seyfried is the front-runner at the moment, but it could be Colman. Hell, I wouldn’t even count Close in this category.

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted nominees:

  • Mank 
  • Minari 
  • Promising Young Woman 
  • Soul
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7

Possible spoilers:

  • Da 5 Bloods 
  • Judas and the Black Messiah 
  • Never Rarely Sometimes Always 
  • Palm Springs
  • Sound of Metal

Both screenplay nominations will mainly consist of all the Best Picture nominees, so that means guaranteed nominations are Mank, Minari, Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7. It’s the fifth nomination that’s up in the air, but I’d say that Soul gets in because like Inside Out, the Academy will like to see the animated film nominated in an other category other than Best Animated Feature.

Other than that, possible spoilers could be Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah and Sound of Metal if the Academy do like these movies enough (and any of them get a Best Picture nomination). Other than that, Never Rarely Sometimes Always and Palm Springs could get in there, if they want to celebrate those two acclaimed movies, because they are unlikely to get nominated in any other categories.

In terms of who will win, Sorkin’s screenplay for The Trial of the Chicago 7 is pretty much unbeatable at the moment.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted nominees:

  • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • The Father
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Nomadland 
  • One Night in Miami

Possible spoilers:

  • First Cow
  • News of the World

Like Best Original Screenplay, this field will most likely consist of Best Picture nominees, so count on seeing The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Nomadland (who will most likely win) and One Night in Miami all nominated. Considering Borat’s political impact and fairly positive reviews, we will most likely to see Borat in this category, as they probably wont give it recognition in the Best Picture or Supporting Actress fields.

In terms of spoilers, fairly acclaimed movies, First Cow and News of the World could get in there, but I doubt it. Count of these five being the nominated five.

There you go – my predictions on why will be nominated at this year’s Oscars.

Published by cameronmac6

I am a Film Studies university graduate (well, two years ago), and a film and TV fan. Some favourite movies include Singin in the Rain, Fargo, Back to the Future and Parasite, and some favourite TV shows include Breaking Bad, Fargo, Community, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend and Buffy.

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